England is set to compete in a World Cup semi-final against Argentina on Wednesday, following France‘s match against Spain on Tuesday. This scheduling places England at a potential disadvantage, as a recurring pattern over the past 14 years suggests that the team with an extra day of rest before a final often emerges victorious.
Across 13 of the last 14 finals in men’s and women’s World Cups and European Championships, the side that played their semi-final a day earlier ultimately won the final. The only exception occurred in a tournament where both semi-finals were held on the same day. This trend also extends to the Copa America.
Historical Context of Rest Days
The impact of an additional day’s rest has been observed in numerous past tournaments. In the Men’s European Championship 2012, Spain had an extra day of rest and defeated Italy 4-0. Similarly, Germany won the Women’s European Championship 2013 after having an additional day compared to Norway, who had also played extra time and a penalty shootout in their semi-final.
The Men’s World Cup 2014 saw Germany with an extra day of rest over Argentina, ultimately winning the final. Germany had also played a less strenuous semi-final, leading 5-0 against Brazil after 30 minutes, while Argentina played 120 minutes before a penalty shootout. The United States benefited from more rest days in the Women’s World Cup 2015, securing a 5-2 victory against Japan.
In the Men’s European Championship 2016, despite having home advantage, France lost to Portugal, who had an extra day of rest. The Women’s European Championship 2017 presented an anomaly, where the final-four ties were played on the same day, with the Netherlands defeating Denmark 4-2. However, the time difference between the end of the games was only two hours.
Subsequent tournaments continued to show this pattern. France had more rest days than Croatia in the Men’s World Cup 2018 and won 4-2. The United States also had an extra day of rest before defeating the Netherlands in the Women’s World Cup 2019.
UEFA adjusted the semi-final scheduling for the Men’s European Championship 2020 (played in 2021), providing finalists with gaps of four and three days. However, Italy (with four days of rest) defeated England (with three days) on penalties in the final. A year later, in the Women’s European Championship 2021 (played in 2022), England had both home advantage and an extra day of preparation, leading to a 2-1 victory over Germany after extra time.
The Men’s World Cup 2022 saw Argentina with an extra day of rest compared to France, eventually winning on penalties. In the Women’s World Cup 2023, Spain, with an extra day of rest, beat England 1-0, despite Spain having to travel from New Zealand after their semi-final. Spain also defeated England 2-1 in the Men’s European Championship 2024, again with an extra day of rest.
Most recently, in the Women’s European Championship 2025, England retained their title, beating the world champions on penalties in Switzerland. England had played their semi-final on Tuesday, while their opponents played on Wednesday, both requiring extra time. This allowed England an additional 24 hours of recovery.
England’s Recent Tournament Progression
While the rest day pattern poses a challenge, England has demonstrated improved performance in recent tournament knockout stages. Since the Euro 2016 last-16 exit to Iceland, England has reached five successive quarter-finals across World Cups and European Championships. No other country has reached the last eight of each of the last three World Cups and two European Championships.
Under Gareth Southgate, England progressed from quarter-finals against Sweden, Ukraine, and Switzerland. The victory against Sweden in 2018 marked England’s first quarter-final win in 22 years, and their first on foreign soil in 28 years achieved within 90 minutes since 1966. The team has also topped their group in their last four tournaments, losing only once in 15 pool games.
The current manager, Thomas Tuchel, now faces Norway in the quarter-finals, a team that defeated Italy in qualifying and Brazil in the last 16. Norway also features a notable striker, Erling Haaland. Historically, England’s quarter-final defeats have often come against footballing superpowers such as West Germany in 1970, Argentina in 1986, Brazil in 2002, Italy in 2012, and France in 2022. Portugal also eliminated England in 2004 and 2006.
The ability to win ‘winnable’ games in the knockout stages has become a characteristic of England’s recent performances. They have won three quarter-finals in the last eight years, a significant improvement from their previous record of only three quarter-final wins in their entire history before that period. This shift suggests a change in the team’s identity, moving from a side that sometimes reached quarter-finals to one that frequently wins them.
The pattern of rest days is not as strong further back in history, possibly due to lower physical intensity in older tournaments. Some tournaments also had semi-finals played on the same day, such as the 1996 Men’s Euros. While playing both semi-finals on the same day would largely address the issue, practical considerations like television scheduling make this unlikely.
A less drastic solution could involve moving tournaments forward to create an additional day between the semi-finals and the final. This would result in teams having five and four days of rest, respectively, rather than the current four and three, potentially reducing the impact of the rest day disparity. The Copa America has shown instances where the team playing the second semi-final has won the final, including Argentina’s victory over Brazil in 2021 despite less rest.
The upcoming semi-final will determine whether England or Argentina can overcome this historical trend on Sunday.
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Source: nytimes.com
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As News-GB's Sports Reporter, Megan Sinclair reports on tennis, cricket and athletics for readers across the country. She built her name interviewing rising British talent. She holds a degree in Sport and Media from the University of Edinburgh and completed an NCTJ diploma. Megan lives in Edinburgh, where she plays club tennis and follows track athletics. “Give the athletes room and the story tells itself.”